My Phd advisor and mentor, Dr John F Guilmartin (one of the wisest military historians I have ever known), often said there is no such thing as an unwinnable war, nor is there such a thing as an unlosable war. Many expect the Ukraine to fall within days despite their fierce defense to date. I make no predictions either way, there are simply too many variables.
Russia's aggression of the Ukraine has been predictable for many years, though I can't think of any foreign policy pundits who thought it would get this aggressive and this dangerous. In large part because the slow, methodical hybrid war the Russians have practiced under Putin has been very successful. With this one move, Putin has gambled all of his successes over the past decades.
Now, he seems to be escalating to the nuclear option in response to sanctions. I think we need to dust off some of our WWIII escalation models of the 1980s - I'm seeing some disturbing parallels here.
This is why I prefer history. It is far less terrifying to analyze cause and effect when the outcome is already known, and the dead are already dead.
God, save the Ukraine and the rest of us.
All views in this blog are my own and represent the views of no other person, organization, or institution.
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